The Trump tariffs are awesome, best thing he has done to date in my opinion.
As negative as I am about Trump, his moves to scale down the bureaucracy, shrink the deficit, and impose tariffs have all been excellent. Border crossings are at zero.
With that being said, Trump supporters are almost never forthcoming about the significant tradeoffs for all of this. We are almost certainly getting a war with Iran, there will be an increase in legal immigration down the pike, and we are getting the Paypal mafia to wield an AI surveillance state which hates antisemitism.
At the same time, Russia normalization will remain elusive, deportations will not be substantial, and although the border is closed now, that can always change in the next administration.
When you look at the ledger, the upside like the border and DOGE activities come with significant caveats, the downsides are considerable, and much of what was promised will simply never be delivered.
As negative as I am about Trump, his moves to scale down the bureaucracy, shrink the deficit, and impose tariffs have all been excellent. Border crossings are at zero.
With that being said, Trump supporters are almost never forthcoming about the significant tradeoffs for all of this. We are almost certainly getting a war with Iran, there will be an increase in legal immigration down the pike, and we are getting the Paypal mafia to wield an AI surveillance state which hates antisemitism.
At the same time, Russia normalization will remain elusive, deportations will not be substantial, and although the border is closed now, that can always change in the next administration.
When you look at the ledger, the upside like the border and DOGE activities come with significant caveats, the downsides are considerable, and much of what was promised will simply never be delivered.
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Just kidding Iโm still rich ๐
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I absolutely support the Trump Tariff plan.
โข Trump Tariffs and associated volatility may force the Fed to cut interest rates before the government refinances its debt later this year
โข Few countries are retaliating. Some of our biggest trading partners like India, Japan, and Indonesia will negotiate for a deal
โข The economic pain of tariffs will be acute, that is why it is important to start as early as possible so that the economy can recover before the midterms and 2028
โข Tariffs will bring in up to $600 billion per year in revenue to offset the deficit and cost of tax cuts
โข Tariffs plus subsidies from the CHIPS Act which just started going out in 2024 will drive manufacturing growth. There was a manufacturing construction boom in 2021-2023 because of this.
โข Trump Tariffs and associated volatility may force the Fed to cut interest rates before the government refinances its debt later this year
โข Few countries are retaliating. Some of our biggest trading partners like India, Japan, and Indonesia will negotiate for a deal
โข The economic pain of tariffs will be acute, that is why it is important to start as early as possible so that the economy can recover before the midterms and 2028
โข Tariffs will bring in up to $600 billion per year in revenue to offset the deficit and cost of tax cuts
โข Tariffs plus subsidies from the CHIPS Act which just started going out in 2024 will drive manufacturing growth. There was a manufacturing construction boom in 2021-2023 because of this.
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The only legitimate argument against the policy is that it doesnโt go far enough and requires industry-specific duties and quotas or additional measures like subsidies and tax credits.
But this crap from Thomas Sowell and Milton Friedman has been disproven already by the experience from COVID and the Ukraine War.
Tariffs are not a tax on consumers. When Trump implemented tariffs in his first term, prices did not go up because exporters absorbed the cost of the tariff. Businesses donโt want to and in many cases canโt pass on the cost to consumers because of competition and because Americans hate price increases.
Exporters may pass on *some* of the cost to consumers in the short term, but not in full. And over the long term, as production moves back to America and economies of scale are created, then domestic manufacturers wonโt have to pay the tariff.
Regardless, it is an existential necessity for America to become productive again. The question is โhowโ and not โifโ America should use industrial policy to rebuild its productive economy.
But this crap from Thomas Sowell and Milton Friedman has been disproven already by the experience from COVID and the Ukraine War.
Tariffs are not a tax on consumers. When Trump implemented tariffs in his first term, prices did not go up because exporters absorbed the cost of the tariff. Businesses donโt want to and in many cases canโt pass on the cost to consumers because of competition and because Americans hate price increases.
Exporters may pass on *some* of the cost to consumers in the short term, but not in full. And over the long term, as production moves back to America and economies of scale are created, then domestic manufacturers wonโt have to pay the tariff.
Regardless, it is an existential necessity for America to become productive again. The question is โhowโ and not โifโ America should use industrial policy to rebuild its productive economy.
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Trump is considering a 90 day pause on all tariffs except for China.
Gay.
Gay.
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Literally the only good thing Trump does and he walks it back after a week.
But we will get a war with Iran. Nice.
But we will get a war with Iran. Nice.
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Forwarded from Rerum Novarum // Intel, Breaking News, and Alerts ๐บ๐ธ
๐บ๐ธโก- Markets have begun plunging again after CNBC claimed Hassett and Trump have not proposed a 90-day tariff pause.
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Nicholas J. Fuentes
Literally the only good thing Trump does and he walks it back after a week. But we will get a war with Iran. Nice.
Nevermind
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My prediction is that a steady stream of heads of state will visit the White House, starting with Netanyahu today and Meloni later in the week, and make deals with the United States to lower trade barriers.
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Forwarded from Rerum Novarum // Intel, Breaking News, and Alerts ๐บ๐ธ
๐บ๐ธ๐ฎ๐ท๐ฎ๐ฑโก- BREAKING: "Israel preparing for a possible strike on Iran, and believes it can hit Iran's nuclear sites, missile systems, and air force assets. Israel may need US approval, refuelling support and important munitions," - Yediot Ahronot.
Yediot Ahronot report is surprising, in that Israel is no longer seeking a joint US-Israeli attack on Iran, and that Israel may go alone.
Israel only requests from the US to "push for a tougher nuclear deal after the attack."
Yediot Ahronot report is surprising, in that Israel is no longer seeking a joint US-Israeli attack on Iran, and that Israel may go alone.
Israel only requests from the US to "push for a tougher nuclear deal after the attack."
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Forwarded from Rerum Novarum // Intel, Breaking News, and Alerts ๐บ๐ธ
๐บ๐ธโก- US Treasury Secretary Bessent says 70 countries have approached the US for discussions on trade.
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America First is LIVE! Tonight we are discussing Trump's tariffs and the stock market's response as well as the imminent war with Iran
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